Samuel R. Staley, Ph.D. — Managing Director, DeVoe L. Moore Center At The Florida State University
Crystal J. Taylor, Ph.D. — Director of Research, DeVoe L. Moore Center At The Florida State University
Vittorio Nastasi — Research Associate, DeVoe L. Moore Center At The Florida State University
Doug Wheeler — Director, the George Gibbs Center for Economic Prosperity
Introduction
Florida is facing an unprecedented housing affordability crisis. According to the U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency, single-family home prices in Florida have grown by 165% since the end of the Great Recession in 2009, and the rate of growth accelerated considerably during the COVID-19 pandemic. The rise in home prices is particularly severe in Florida compared to nationwide trends.
The state’s population has grown by between 200,000 and 300,000 residents per year since 2010 due almost exclusively to net in-migration. The total number of households in Florida rose by 20% from 2010 to 2024, increasing from 7,420,802 to 8,838,661.
Meanwhile, Florida’s cities and counties are not adding enough housing to meet this growing demand. Florida State University economists Keith Ihlanfeld and Danny Sierra estimate that the state now faces significant shortages of homes and rental units. Statewide, these shortages may exceed 54,672 rental units and 66,174 houses for homeowners.
Moreover, this shortage represents a dramatic change in the state’s housing market. As recently as 2014, the housing market was roughly in balance. Unfortunately, the trend toward an imbalance was evident as early as 2011, and housing construction began slowing as early as the mid-1990s.
Thus, restoring the state’s housing market entails reversing longterm reductions in housing supply. Critical factors in restoring Florida’s housing affordability will be reforming local land-use regulations and streamlining permitting processes. Yet, state policymakers also need to be wary of sending the pendulum too far in the opposite direction by hamstringing local decision-making.
A middle road, however, may exist. Local governments can better accommodate our local builders and current homeowners by allowing more innovative designs and accommodating more flexible use of lands. For example, a homeowner may actually have the practical space for a studio rental unit in their backyard as an Accessory Dwelling Unit (ADU).
Unfortunately, current land-use restrictions in many cities and counties may hinder this modest approach to addressing the state’s housing shortage. Few in the general public, however, understand how local land-use regulation hinders development. The remainder of this policy brief explains how the “black box” of land-use regulation works and outlines steps for improving housing market outcomes.
Click here to read “Reforming Local Land-Use Planning is Critical to Meeting Florida Housing Needs.”
