FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
October 9, 2026
CONTACT
Nicole Kiser
nkiser@jamesmadison.org
(850) 386-3131
New JMI Poll: Republicans Hold Double-Digit Leads in Key Statewide Races; Florida Voters Focused on Affordability
Nearly eight in ten voters support requiring voter approval for local property tax increases. Amendment 3 clears 60 percent threshold.
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. —A new JMI Poll commissioned by The James Madison Institute finds Republican candidates holding roughly 10-point advantages in four major statewide contests as Florida voters head into the final month before the November election. The poll also finds affordability concerns dominating voters’ priorities, majority support for maintaining equal base funding for K–12 students regardless of where they attend school, and Amendment 3 currently polling above the 60% threshold required for passage.
The poll of 1,200 registered Florida voters was conducted September 28 through October 4, 2026, by Targoz Market Research. The survey has an estimated margin of error of ±2.77 percentage points.
“From choosing the state’s next leaders to weighing changes to Florida’s Constitution, Florida voters are heading into an important election with consequential decisions before them,” said Dr. Robert McClure, President and CEO of The James Madison Institute. “The latest JMI Poll provides a clear snapshot of where voters stand as Election Day approaches. Affordability remains top of mind and voters are expressing strong views on property taxes, education, and important technology issues.”
Republicans Lead Statewide, CFO Race Remains Tied
Among likely voters, Republican candidates lead by approximately 10 points in the races for governor, U.S. Senate, attorney general, and agriculture commissioner. Byron Donalds leads David Jolly 52% to 42% in the gubernatorial contest with only 3% undecided, while Ashley Moody leads Angie Nixon by the same 52% to 42% margin in the U.S. Senate race. James Uthmeier leads José Javier Rodríguez 50% to 40% for attorney general, and Wilton Simpson leads Joey Mendoza Atkins 50% to 39% for agriculture commissioner.
However, the race for chief financial officer is significantly closer. Republican Blaise Ingoglia and Democrat Annette Taddeo are tied at 43% among likely voters, with a considerably higher number of undecided voters (10%). Among registered voters, Ingoglia is ahead 40–38.
Amendment 3 Above the 60 Percent Threshold
Of the three proposed constitutional amendments on the November ballot, Amendment 3 is currently the only measure polling above Florida’s required 60% threshold among likely voters.
Amendment 3, which would increase the homestead exemption and lower the assessment cap on non-homestead property, receives support from 63% of likely voters, with 21% opposed and 15% undecided. Support is broad rather than partisan, with 66% of Republicans, 52% of Democrats, and 54% of independents in favor, with 16% still undecided.
Amendment 2 stands just below the passage threshold with 57% support, while Amendment 1 receives 42% support among likely voters.
Affordability Dominates Voters’ Concerns
Economic pressures remain at the forefront for Florida voters. When asked to identify up to three of the most important issues heading into the election, fuel prices and health care tied for first at 36% among registered voters, followed by housing affordability at 30% and taxes and government spending at 29%.
Those concerns are translating directly to household budgets. Eighty percent of voters say recent changes in fuel prices have altered their regular household spending habits, including 33% who say they have changed their spending “a lot.” Additionally, 39% of voters say their household financial situation is worse than it was one year ago, compared with just 16% who say they are better off.
Overwhelming Bipartisan Support for Property Tax Levy Caps
One of the strongest findings in the poll comes on property taxes.
While just 35% of voters were familiar with the concept of a property tax levy cap before taking the survey, support surged after respondents were given a brief explanation of the policy. Seventy-eight percent support requiring voter approval before a local government can increase total property tax revenue above a specified annual limit, including 53% who strongly support the proposal.
Support crosses partisan lines, with 83% of Republicans, 72% of Democrats, and 76% of independents backing the concept.
Voters Back Equal Base Funding Across K–12 Education Options
A majority of voters, 54%, say the state should keep paying the same base amount for each regular K–12 student whether the student is in a district school, a charter, a private school, or learning from more than one provider. Twenty-eight percent would pay a higher base for some students than others. The same-base position leads among Republicans (57%) and independents (58%), and it leads among Democrats too (46% to 36%).
Floridians Overwhelmingly Want Parents, Not Government, in Charge of Children’s Technology Use
Seventy-eight percent of voters say parents or guardians should have primary responsibility for children’s social media use, compared with just 2% who say government should have that role. For AI chatbots, 68% place primary responsibility with parents or guardians, while only 5% choose government. That view holds across party lines, with 81% of Republicans, 77% of Democrats, and 76% of independents placing primary responsibility with parents.
At the same time, concern about AI is high. Eighty-five percent of voters are very or somewhat concerned about children and teenagers interacting with AI chatbots. Voters are also pessimistic about AI’s effect on employment: 53% believe AI will eliminate more Florida jobs than it creates over the next decade, while only 19% believe it will create more jobs than it eliminates.
Poll Methodology
The online survey of 1,200 registered Florida voters was conducted September 28 through October 4, 2026, by Targoz Market Research on behalf of The James Madison Institute. Sampling was stratified by demographics and geography, and results were weighted by demographics, party, geography, and behavioral measures to reflect Florida’s electorate. The estimated margin of error is ±2.77 percentage points. Ballot results are also reported among a designated likely-voter sample.
Please link any online stories to jmipoll.com.
You can read the full poll with party and regional crosstabs here.
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The James Madison Institute is a 501(c)3 organization dedicated to the ideals of limited government, economic freedom, federalism and individual liberty coupled with individual responsibility. The institute conducts research on such issues as criminal justice, health care, taxes and regulatory environments.
